We are now entering the seventh day of this latest international crisis, sparked when British boarding crews checking vessels for arms smuggling were captured at gunpoint by Iranian Revolutionary Guards. All this took place out of sight of British helicopters and support ships in the territorially contentious Shatt al-Arab waterway between Iran and Iraq.
What are we to make of this? Playground bully tactics or a logical fightback to building pressure in the region? What can the UK do other than puff itself up like a cockerel and express moral bird-rage?
Let us first look at Iran. An outed member of Bush's 'axis of evil' club, the country has of late been involved in allegations of arms smuggling to shia militias operating against coalition forces in Iraq. Around 90% of Iran's population belong to the shia branch of Islam; diplomatic relations with the US and UK have been tough in the past half century to say the least (think Iranian embassy siege in London 1980, Rushdie's fatwa and subsequent cutting of diplomatic relations, the rejection of David Reddaway as British Ambassador to Iran etc, etc). Now a cursory glance at the map will reveal that Iran at this particular point in time finds itself sandwiched between Iraq on the one side, it's regime toppled and US military everywhere, and Afghanistan on the other, it's regime toppled and US military everywhere. It would not be too unreasonable to imagine that the Iranians see a threatening pattern emerging. Two new US aircraft carrier fleets have arrived in the Gulf this week, and Iran alleges members of it's elite Revolutionary Guard are currently being held by American forces in Iraq.
Military doctrine as professed by Iran involves defence of national territory only. The Shatt al Arab waterway has been contested for years between Iran and it's erstwhile sovereign neighbour, Iraq. Commentators have pointed out that it is possible to go back to Ottoman times to see the first signs of disagreement over the floating border. Treaties have been made and abrogated since the 1700s. Anyone interested in the tos and fros can research that historical aspect independently, however the point remains it is hard to prove the British sailors were not in contested waters known to be territorially hazy.
And what a lovely target the British! Overstretched militarily, losing heart and control as part of the coalition in Iraq, a smaller, weaker nation than the USA. Iran calculates big brother can ill avoid confrontation at present time and so is springing its trap with perfect timing: Blair on his way, Bush on the back foot, think again West!
Inevitably a large part of the British population will call for pride to be defended, honour restored and ultimatums evocative of 1939... Politicians knowing this, and knowing how impossible conflict with Iran could be are left, well without a paddle, or even a patrol boat.
