A few weeks ago Labour under Gordon Brown looked polished, efficient and scarcely troubled. Now, in the wake of cynical manoeuvring, revelations on bungled immigration figures, and a rejuvenated Conservative party, the government finds itself under considerable pressure. So, is it just politics as usual, or has David Cameron finally got something to work with?
Mr Brown's current headaches began around the time of the Conservative party conference. After apparently priming Britain for the polls, the Prime Minister suddenly found himself struggling as key Tories delivered charismatic performances and clever policy promise in Blackpool. The conference warm-up act, former Conservative leader William Hague, cannily picked apart Brown's own conference pitch to the people, labelling him "not a conviction politician but a calculation politician." This comment seemed to ring painfully true as observations made apparent Labour's shadowy reliance on electoral number crunchers.
Conservative leader David Cameron, himself under pressure as he took to the conference podium, used neither notes nor autocue to deliver a speech which impressed both conference and the wider press with its power and delivery. Shadow Chancellor George Osborne spoke out on inheritance tax at the event, pledging to raise the limits on Britain's "most hated tax", should the Conservatives gain office. Chancellor Alistair Darling's subsequent budget, aimed to steal the Tories' thunder, in fact earned him the unenviable nickname of "Mr Magpie" as he was accused of adopting as his own large parts of opposition policy. The Times of October 10th summed up the mood: "In an electioneering Autumn Budget that lacked only the election, the Chancellor adopted one Tory plan after another, including charging "nondomiciled" wealthy foreigners living in Britain and switching air travel duty from passengers to flights."
Struggling to put this and the election fiasco behind them, in mid-October Labour soon faced the imminent question over the EU Treaty and Gordon Brown's so-called red lines. With the premier flying off to Lisbon to battle our corner, the Tories at home screamed for the referendum as pledged in the Labour election manifesto. On 19 th October David Cameron told BBC Breakfast that Brown's red lines were "complete red herrings" and said: "This is, once again, Gordon Brown and his government treating the British people like fools."
However, all of these setbacks and the criticism made must now seem minor compared to the latest government embarrassment. Newsnight of 31 October reported on the confusion in which the government found itself after it was revealed sizeable and significant errors had been made in government immigration statistics. Having first stated that 2.7 million jobs had been created since 1997, with around 30% going to foreign workers (a total of 800,000), Labour then seemed to back pedal, stating there were in fact 1.1 million foreign workers, meaning a far higher percentage of British jobs filled by non-Britons. The programme asked incredulously, "Is this what Gordon Brown means by British jobs for British workers?"
The Telegraph reported on the written parliamentary answer on the botch-up delivered by Work and Pensions Secretary Peter Hain, who insisted ministers had used earlier figures “in good faith”: "I apologise for having to make this revision. I am sure you will understand these calculations are not straightforward." In reply, shadow Work and Pensions spokesman Chris Grayling described Mr Hain's admission as "extraordinary": "The fact that the Government did not know the true number of overseas workers who have come to the UK in the past 10 years is profoundly worrying, and confirms fears that ministers have simply lost control of our systems for migrant workers."
To compound Labour's woes, this unfortunate episode came only hours after David Cameron's first real speech of substance on immigration policy since he became leader. In the speech given to the Policy Exchange the opposition leader put much emphasis on the growing stress under which British transport, infrastructure and public services currently operate. Making pointed reference to the recent report predicting a boost in population (set to increase by 4.4 million to 65 million by 2016 and 71 million by 2031), Mr Cameron talked dispassionately and intelligently about growing numbers of households and the so-called atomization of society as people increasingly leave family and community behind.
Mr Cameron's pledges, among them to reduce the level of net immigration into Britain from non-EU states and introduce transitional immigration controls for new EU entrants, seemed to have hit home with potential voters, with subsequent polls revealing the Conservatives gaining ground on Labour.
But not just smart policy and timing explains the rise of Mr Cameron's star. The Tory leader has grown considerably in stature of late with ideas finally coming forth on crucial issues, as he weaves policy and values together in a way that resonates with increasing numbers of Britons. Also, his relationship with the Prime Minister has developed much to his advantage. Where Tony Blair treated the opposition leader with wry good humour and almost brotherly indulgence in the Commons, Brown appears a figure less fluent and less likeable, quicker to anger and much more averse to criticism. Cameron has found a way to bait the bear, and in spite of the new aggression and unpleasantness to be felt hanging in the air at Prime Minister's Questions, the Tories often emerge with the upper hand.
So, with Brown sometimes struggling to maintain his composure and a fast-learning and disruptive Cameron gathering increasing momentum, the Conservatives could be forgiven for thinking their long-awaited opportunity may not be long in the waiting.
