Death becomes him?

Claims have emerged that FARC's spiritual leader and founder Pedro Antonio Marín, alias ‘Manuel Marulanda’ or ‘Sure Shot’ may be dead.

The news was reported in Colombia's Semana magazine and if true represents another shattering blow to the crumbling edifice of the leftwing guerrilla organization.

Defence Minister Juan Manuel Santos announced in the interview that military intelligence sources had confirmed that the FARC number one died on 26th March at 6.30 in the afternoon.

Minister Santos confirmed that heavy aerial bombardments had been underway for days on presumed guerrilla targets around this date although FARC sources are said to have reported an apparent heart attack as cause of death.

With the veracity of the reports and cause - if any - of death yet to be confirmed, Colombia sits on a knife edge.

Marulanda has led the FARC since it's beginnings 45 years ago and is thought to be nearly in his 80s. With desertions at an all-time high and several high-ranking captains captured or killed, this latest blow could be the beginning of the end for the rebel group.

FARC on the brink?

Could things finally be about to change in war-torn Colombia?

This is Nelly Avila Moreno, the latest high-ranking member of rebel group FARC to hand herself in to the Colombian authorities.

Comandante Karina, as she was known to her comrades, is said to be responsible for a string of murders and abductions over the course of several decades in her native Antioquia province.

Her detention represents another coup for hardline President Alvaro Uribe in his fight against the cocaine and kidnap-funded Marxist insurgents.

Of late the FARC, who have operated freely in the countryside for close to 50 years, have suffered major morale-shattering reversals as prominent members have been either killed or brought in from the countryside.

In March, Ivan Rios - a member of FARC’s seven-man secretariat - was killed by his own bodyguard. The man who had formerly acted as guardian turned assassin and offered up his former employer’s severed hand and laptop as proof of death to the authorities.

The killing of Raul Reyes - another high-ranking captain - in the same month was described by Defence Minister Juan Manuel Santos as the “biggest blow so far” to the FARC.

Now safely in government custody, Karina has spoken out on national television, appealing to her former comrades to give up the fight and follow her example by handing themselves in.

And so what seemed unthinkable up until a short time ago - an end to Colombia’s perpetual state of insecurity - now seems to be within reach.

But while the president may justifiably feel he has turned a corner in the fight against internal terrorism, military actions close to the border have lead to simmering tensions between neighbouring Ecuador and Venezuela. Diplomatic relations, particularly with Venezuela's volatile Hugo Chavez, urgently need attention.

Whether Mr Uribe can prove himself as effective in international diplomacy as he has in national defence remains to be seen.

Pioneering Spirit

A new era of travel has arrived in Colombia with the arrival of new 'ultra-low' budget airline, Spirit.

On 8th May Spirit Airlines, based in Miramar, Florida, opened a new route between Fort Lauderdale and Cartagena on Colombia's north coast. The airline says it is celebrating the new route with introductory fares of $49 USD to be followed with everyday value season fares of $119.

The route to Cartagena represents the airline's first experimentation with the country and, if successful, could bring momentous change to both the national economy and the freedom of movement of its people.

For years the Colombian air travel market has been dominated by its two major domestic players, Avianca and the smaller Aerorepublica, but with prices out of reach for most ordinary Colombians air travel has mostly remained a preserve of the elite.

Spirit, which has based its successful low cost model on companies such as Ryanair, says it is planning to include Bogota as a destination in 2008 and is studying the possibility of including other cities in the future.

The news will be greeted with jubilation by both the Colombian diaspora within the United States and for those nationals seeking to expand their horizons overseas. With the arrival of Spirit, many Colombians will now feel the world is somewhat closer than before.

Extradition

The DEA have finally got their man. The 42 year old recognised as one of the most powerful of the jailed paramilitary leaders, Carlos Mario Jimenez, alias Macaco, has finally been extradited from Colombia to the US where he will face drugs charges.

Jimenez is thought to have been at the head of the now demobilised AUC, known in Spanish as the Autodefensas Unidas de Colombia, or United Self-Defences of Colombia. The organization he formerly ran has long been linked with drug trafficking and money laundering as a means of personal enrichment and for the procurement of arms to continue the supposed struggle against left-wing guerrillas.

Before extradition was finally granted by the Supreme Court in Bogota, Jimenez himself was a resident of Colombia's most notorious jail, La Combita, where US authorities allege he continued to control illegal activities.

President Alvaro Uribe, in his quest to ensure continuing stability in Colombia, has long been operating a system of demobilization and rehabilitation of former paramilitary and guerrilla members. Members are promised light sentences and immunity from extradition if they confess to their crimes but in the case of Macaco it seems being in jail was no barrier to further illicit activities.

Speaking at a meeting for businessmen in Medellin, Mr Uribe said, "We're not going to reward people who revert to crime."

Caribbean Revolt

After rioting in the capital over food prices, Haiti’s Prime Minister has been thrown out by the country’s 27 senators.

In a country ranked poorest in Latin America and the Caribbean, prices have risen over 100% in the last year and with most of the population living on an average income of only $2 per day widespread discontent has finally turned to violence.

On 5th April four people were killed while clashing with security forces in the southern town of Les Cayes, and one United Nation peacekeeper has also been reported killed in recent unrest.

The Haitian president, Rene Preval, who has the power to remove the Prime Minister, has called on the population for calm:

"To those who are stirring up violence, I order you to stop because it is not going to solve the problem.”

Seeking to ease the problem, President Preval has promised to finance 15% reductions in the price of rice using international aid and revenue from the private sector.

Despite executive assurances, there are reports of shops shut, roving armed gangs on the streets and widespread looting. The airport has been closed to international flights and many families have locked themselves at home while the troubles continue.

Haiti, like many Caribbean nations, relies heavily on imported food in order to feed its population, and with already impoverished agricultural land and dense population, the rising price of rice in the last year has brought the country to economic breaking point.

Analysts suggest this could be the first of many problems in the world’s poorer countries as supply for staple food crops outstrips demand and global prices rise.

High Fever

Governor Sergio Cabral of Rio de Janeiro is to consider contracting foreign medics to deal with the current severe outbreak of dengue fever affecting the city and its environs.

With current medical resources stretched to the limit, more help is expected to arrive from other states from within Brazil, but Governor Cabral has not ruled out requesting the help of Cuban doctors who dealt with their own epidemic in the 1980s.

Cases in Rio state this year are currently close to 37,000, with 67 deaths reported so far, and with medical services currently overwhelmed by the number of people affected there has been much official finger pointing.

President Lula said on Monday night that all levels of government were to blame for the extent and impact of the health crisis while Health Minister Jose Gomes Temporao blamed Rio's municipal authorities, citing the failure to spray against mosquitoes early enough to control the outbreak.

Dengue fever, like malaria, is a tropical infection spread by infected mosquitoes that often breed near stagnant water. Symptoms include muscle cramps, headaches, weakness and fever. It is hemorrhagic in tendency, sometimes resulting in bruising and internal bleeding and in rare cases it can prove fatal.

From 630,000 reported cases in 2007 in Latin America, 183 resulted in death.

Bid for Freedom

As tensions continue to simmer between Ecuador and Colombia, French president Nicolas Sarkozy has meantime reconfirmed his commitment to the liberation of kidnapped former presidential candidate Ingrid Betancourt.

According to Bogota’s El Tiempo newspaper, Mr Sarkozy sent a message to FARC leader Manuel Marulanda – known in Colombia as ‘sureshot’ – requesting her immediate liberation. The French president referred to the reportedly frail state of Miss Betancourt and emphasized the responsibility of the rebel group for her ultimate safety:

“Don’t waste this opportunity which has presented itself, it would be a grave political error, a humanitarian tragedy, a crime. You would be responsible for the death of a woman.”

Mr Sarkozy’s Colombian counterpart, Alvaro Uribe, confirmed there would be a temporary suspension of the military effort against the rebel group, commenting, “A humanitarian medical mission is in progress for the kidnapped citizens.”

Miss Betancourt, who possesses dual French-Colombian nationality, was taken prisoner 6 years ago while campaigning near San Vicente de Saguan, Caqueta province, and is said to be suffering badly from Hepatitis B in an unknown jungle location.

For the Colombian government, the last few months have seen unprecedented progress in terms of hostage release and in the structural weakening of the FARC leadership. Mr Uribe, one of Colombia’s most popular presidents of recent years, has been credited with a growing improvement in national security and confidence although rural areas still suffer the effects of insurgency and in the cities high levels of crime make life difficult.

The Aftermath

As widely predicted, tensions between the nations of Colombia, Ecuador and Venezuela have calmed after a week of turmoil.

In the end the matter was resolved at a regional summit with Brazil playing a major role in calming tensions between its northern neighbours. Shaking hands with Colombian President Alvaro Uribe, Ecuador's Rafael Correa stated, "With the commitment of never attacking a brother country again and by asking forgiveness, we can consider this very serious incident resolved."

The outcome is positive in more ways than one: as well as defusing a potentially disastrous regional conflict, it shows the increasing solidarity and efficacy of a unified league of South American nations.

Colombia in particular can move forward with optimism after the latest events. The government appears to have succeeded in their aim of further weakening rebel group FARC and of placing on the agenda the contentious issue of cross-border rebel activity.

A risky gamble indeed to have gone into Ecuador's territory, but one which seems to have paid off particularly given the latest blow delivered to the FARC.

Just as the nations gathered at the peacemaking summit news emerged that another notorious rebel leader, Ivan Rios, had been killed at the hands of one of his former commanders. Pedro Pablo Montoya murdered his boss, a member of the rebel Secretariat, ostensibly to gain a $2.5 million bounty offered by the Colombian government.

Debate is currently underway in the country as to whether such a cold-blooded character should benefit from such a large and official reward. Critics would say it sends out a message that terror may be beaten with terror; more realistic observers would point out that in Colombia more than most places, the means justify the ends.

Colombia and a short history of the pre-emptive strike

In the wake of the strike launched against the FARC, both Ecuador and Venezuela have reacted indignantly and threatened Colombia with legal action and military retaliation.

The incident itself consisted of an aerial and groundforce action just inside Ecuadorian territory which resulted in the death of Raul Reyes, one of the most powerful and oldest commanders of the rebel organisation. But while Ecuador cries foul and claims its sovereignty has been violated, the demise of Reyes represents a huge blow to the guerrilla group which for over 40 years has terrorized Colombians.

Ecuador can claim with justification that its rights have been infringed in this instance and the matter looks set to go before the OAS, the Organisation of American States and possibly the United Nations. Colombia, armed with good intelligence it seems and in the midst of an internal conflict, employed a tactic which we have seen throughout the history of nations: the pre-emptive strike.

Perceiving themselves threatened, states have long used the method to stun and disable their opponents in order to head off danger. And as history shows us, law-abiding best intentions and the stark choice of survival rarely make the best of friends in times of crisis.

What better example than that of Pearl Harbor? Choked of supplies and raw resources by the Americans on one side and threatened with a belligerent Russia on the other, the decision was made in 1941 that Japan would seize the vital oilfields of south-east Asia. It was thought at the time that only the American fleet could pose a significant threat to Japanese intentions, so a brilliant strike was conceived: to knock out the US naval aircraft carriers while at anchor in a single surprise blow. Thus could the Japanese disable a dangerous opponent without the risk of costly full frontal war. As we know the strike itself, while daring, ultimately failed in its objective of neutralising enough enemy aircraft carrier capacity. In America, the only emotions greater than moral indignance were the sense of profound shock at the nature of the attack and massive relief that all had not been lost.

In May 1967, Egypt massed troops and tanks on its Sinai border in response to rising tensions between its enemy, Israel, and the surrounding Arab states. With Syria, Jordan and Egypt building up their forces north, east and south, Israel found itself almost totally surrounded and facing the prospect of military annihilation as the world looked on. What followed has become legendary in military history: a devastating surprise attack which left all three Arab armies shattered, shocked and in total disarray. The Israeli airforce crippled its Egyptian counterpart in an overwhelming surprise strike and the army swiftly followed up by seizing the Sinai peninsular in the south and Golan Heights from Syria in the north. Jordanian forces were forced quickly from the West Bank and East Jerusalem, leaving the borders of Israel largely as they are today. Israel, seen as something of a pariah by many, is regularly criticised by countries in more peaceable regions for its aggression and readiness to strike. But Israel sees itself as living constantly on the brink and remembers all too well what it means to have destruction brought upon its people.

Controversy still rages over the Royal Navy's sinking of the ARA General Belgrano during the Falklands war of 1982. In early May the British nuclear powered hunter-killer submarine HMS Conqueror detected the warship close to the Burdwood Bank, south of the islands. Although outside the declared exclusion zone of 200 miles by radius from the centre of the Falklands, Prime Minister Thatcher consulted with her staff and decided the warship and its group presented a clear threat. On May 2 two torpedoes hit and sank the ship resulting in the deaths of 323 men. Despite the fact that the threat to the fledgling and precarious task force was effectively eliminated, the case quickly became a cause-celebre for anti-war activists. To this day criticism is directed at the warlike British leadership of the time.

Colombia v. Venezuela: The Background

Most commentators agree that hostilities between Colombia and Venezuela or Colombia and Ecuador are unlikely at present.

Hugo Chavez has a long history of blustering about the graces of socialist principles and of threatening military action against any likely aggressors, be they from arch enemy the United States, or as in this instance their ally, Colombia.

But in the wake of the killing of FARC number two Raul Reyes, Chavez has ordered tank batallions to the border, ostensibly outraged at Colombia's incursion into Ecuador territory to carry out the fatal raid on rebel camps.

Chavez himself has been accused of harbouring FARC rebels in the past, and his latest move has been seen in some circles as an admission of guilt.

While Ecuador have now reopened the possibility of appointing another Colombian embassador to Quito, having ejected the first, the Venezuela line remains hard, leading Colombian newspaper El Pais to label the local crisis "the worse in recent times."

Colombian political parties have moved their support firmly behind their president for now, asking that he be respected by President Chavez.

During his tenure in office President Alvaro Uribe, criticised in some quarters for his hardline policies, has achieved great successes in winning back large tracts of land from guerrilla control. In a country plagued for decades by the threat of kidnap and extortion, vehicle jacking and sabotage, Mr Uribe has managed to reopen major routes to vital movement of trade and people with uncompromising use of his army.

War between Colombia and Venezuela is unthinkable given their closely matched military capabilites on land, sea and air and yet the contentious border zone where any face-off is likely to take place is long, lawless and regularly used by smugglers and rebel groups. Commentators have made the point that any incident could potentially escalate quickly.

It remains doubtful, however, whether the populations at large have any stomach for the fight; far more likely the people of Colombia and Venezuela will as usual moan about their leaders and keep on with the business of life in the sun.

From Joy to Crisis

For Colombia, it’s joy to crisis in the space of a week.

After the release of two high profile FARC hostages in January, four more were released to scenes of joyous reunion on Wednesday. As with the release of Clara Rojas and Consuelo González, Venezuelan President Hugo Chavez once again combined forces with Colombian Senator Piedad Cordoba in working for the freedom of the latest four after their enforced captivity in the jungle. Gloria Polanco, Luis Eladio Perez, Orlando Beltran and Jorge Eduardo Gechem, all former Colombian legislators, were reunited with their families in the Simon Bolivar International airport near Caracas on February 27.

Colombian president Alvaro Uribe, who has had a tense relationship with Chavez in the past, thanked the Venezuelan premier for his mediation efforts and called for the FARC to release all of those held in captivity. The newly released hostages soon spoke of the poor health of Ingrid Betancourt, previous Colombian presidential candidate and the highest profile captive currently in the hands of the left wing rebel group. Miss Betancourt, who possesses dual French-Colombian nationality, is said to be in a fragile state of health, suffering advanced Hepatitis B as a result of inhumane treatment delivered at the hands of her captors. French president Nicholas Sarkozy added to the calls for her immediate release, stating he will come to Colombia to pick her up himself.

Scarcely days after the released captives were able to return to their families, news broke of the surprise attack and subsequent death of FARC number two Raul Reyes, killed in his jungle camp close to the Colombian border in Ecuador. One of the longest standing and most influential leaders of the insurgency, real name Luis Edgar Devia Silva, Reyes was killed in a predawn airstrike launched on his camp by the Colombian airforce. Shortly after the strike, Colombian soldiers were sent the approximate two kilometers over the border to secure the camp and recover the bodies.

The demise of Raul Reyes, the FARC’s chief spokesman, was seen as a major coup for hardline president Alvaro Uribe but triggered strong criticism and protest from Ecuador, who prepared a note of formal protest. Venezuela’s Hugo Chavez reacted to news of the Colombian incursion with an angry response of his own:

"President [Alvaro] Uribe, think about it long and hard. You had better not get the idea of doing this on our territory because it would be a 'causus belli', cause for a war."

The latest news from Venezuela confirms that Hugo Chavez has ordered thousands of troops and tanks to the border and the closure of the Venezuelan embassy in Bogota in preparation for what could potentially be a war in South America. Speaking on his weekly television slot, ‘Alo Presidente’, he called the slaying of Raul Reyes “a cowardly murder, all of it coldly calculated”, and has labelled the government in Bogota “a terrorist state” for its violation of Ecuador’s territorial sovereignty.

Despite recent steps forward with hostage releases, the relationship between Colombia and Venezuela remains fractious. Colombia’s Alvaro Uribe has achieved great success in securing large parts of the country from the threat of the left wing FARC and remains suspicious about the motives and involvement of professed Fidel Castro fan Hugo Chavez. Chavez for his part perceives Colombia as a staunch ally of what he sees as a dangerous American imperialist empire. Although the United States and European Union officially list the FARC as a terrorist group, President Chavez has refused to do so, instead calling them a legitimate insurgent force.

The Jamundi Massacre

Fifteen soldiers of the Colombian national army have been declared guilty of the massacre of ten anti-narcotics agents and one citizen in what has become one of the most scandalous episodes in the nation's recent history.

The bloody events of May 22nd 2006 quickly became notorious first in Colombia’s south-western Valle del Cauca province and then around the nation. Near the outskirts of Jamundi, a town to the south of Cali, a group consisting of a Colonel, Lieutenant and 13 soldiers on anti-guerrilla operations came upon and shot dead a group of 10 anti-narcotic agents and one civilian.

Initially reported as a tragic case of ‘friendly fire’ between police and military, in some quarters doubts were expressed. An investigation was begun and a short time later, Colombian attorney general Mario Iguarán sanctioned the arrest of all 15 soldiers in a move which shocked the nation.

Now the commander of the battalion in action that day, Lieutenant Colonel Bayron Carvajal and his men are to be considered intellectual authors of the homicide in a ruling handed down by a judge in Cali.

Attorney General Iguaran has refused to rule out the possibility that the massacre was carried out “under orders from narco-traffickers,” and has repeatedly referred to the actions as an “ambush”, terminology which has lead to inevitable accusations of corruption and collusion on the part of the army.

Although during the investigation the name of cartel boss Diego Montoya has reportedly “come up,” at the current time only the soldiers remain under investigation.

In the murky world of Colombian drugs enforcement it is often difficult to know who is working for whom. The well-financed drugs gangs are able to run multiple agents inside the police and judiciary, and in many cases duplicity in the scams and pay-offs have run to the highest levels.

Calming the waters

Colombian President Alvaro Uribe has sought to calm the waters over an incident on the high seas involving the Colombian navy and Nicaraguan shrimping vessels.

The Nicaraguans claim the incident of February 10 involved a Colombian frigate which “intimidated” flag-bearing fishing and shrimping boats in Nicaraguan waters.

A note of protest delivered to the Colombian ambassador to Nicaragua claimed the latitude and longitude of the standoff confirmed its position in Nicaraguan territorial waters and stated:

“…This can only be considered a violation of Nicaraguan sovereignty.”

The note went on to request that “measures be taken so that events of this nature may not be repeated.”

The diplomatic incident is the latest in a series of confrontations involving the contentious dividing lines between Nicaraguan coastal waters and the island territories of San Andres, Providence and Santa Catalina, ceded to Colombia through the 1928-1930 Esguerra-Bárcenas Treaty.

In mid-December a United Nations court was called upon re-affirm the treaty’s terms in the face of Nicaraguan requests to rule on sovereignty.

Speaking from Bogotá in response to this latest incident, Colombian President Alvaro Uribe sought to ease tensions, striking a conciliatory tone:

“I call upon my compatriots to be completely respectful of the coast and waters of Nicaragua and the status of the 82nd Meridian.”

He added that Colombia was a country characterized by its respect for law and “not bellicose towards its neighbours.”

Daniel Ortega, Nicaragua’s recently re-anointed president, has argued in the past that the treaty was in fact annulled by his Sandinista government in the 1980s. He has also claimed it to be legally invalid as it was signed at a time when Nicaragua suffered US occupation.

Colombia's hostages

After the recent release of two high profile hostages, Colombia’s FARC are reportedly considering the freedom of more kidnapped citizens.

Clara Rojas and Consuelo Gonzalez, formerly high profile politicians, were released by the insurgent guerrilla group in early January. The pair were plucked from a high-mountain location by Venezuelan Red Cross helicopters in a deal brokered by Venezuelan president Hugo Chavez and Liberal Party Senator Piedad Cordoba.

Now Senator Cordoba claims more hostages, as yet not identified, will be released “very soon, in the next few days.” Work to release the next hostages is being negotiated through similar channels, claims the senator. She additionally remarked three days ago that she is currently working hard to secure the release of former presidential candidate Ingrid Betancourt “very soon.”

During her long senatorial career, Miss Cordoba has herself been kidnapped briefly by paramilitary groups in Medellin and frequently caused a stir in this most conservative of countries for her work with the black community, women's rights, familial violence and gay rights. Recently she has courted much criticism again by working alongside controversial Hugo Chavez in negotiations with the rebels. Senator Cordoba has been perceived by many conservatives as dangerously leftist, but has regularly spoken out against the hardline style of Colombia’s current president Alvaro Uribe despite death threats.

If the senator does manage to secure the freedom of Miss Betancourt, the most famous victim of kidnap in Colombia, the nation’s institutions and the world will surely recognize her efforts and hope her good work may be repeated again and again. But with the number of hostages currently being held by the FARC estimated to be around 750, many families will remain, for now, waiting.