Tuesday, 4 March 2008

Colombia v. Venezuela: The Background


Most commentators agree that hostilities between Colombia and Venezuela or Colombia and Ecuador are unlikely at present.

Hugo Chavez has a long history of blustering about the graces of socialist principles and of threatening military action against any likely aggressors, be they from arch enemy the United States, or as in this instance their ally, Colombia.

But in the wake of the killing of FARC number two Raul Reyes, Chavez has ordered tank batallions to the border, ostensibly outraged at Colombia's incursion into Ecuador territory to carry out the fatal raid on rebel camps.

Chavez himself has been accused of harbouring FARC rebels in the past, and his latest move has been seen in some circles as an admission of guilt.

While Ecuador have now reopened the possibility of appointing another Colombian embassador to Quito, having ejected the first, the Venezuela line remains hard, leading Colombian newspaper El Pais to label the local crisis "the worse in recent times."

Colombian political parties have moved their support firmly behind their president for now, asking that he be respected by President Chavez.

During his tenure in office President Alvaro Uribe, criticised in some quarters for his hardline policies, has achieved great successes in winning back large tracts of land from guerrilla control. In a country plagued for decades by the threat of kidnap and extortion, vehicle jacking and sabotage, Mr Uribe has managed to reopen major routes to vital movement of trade and people with uncompromising use of his army.

War between Colombia and Venezuela is unthinkable given their closely matched military capabilites on land, sea and air and yet the contentious border zone where any face-off is likely to take place is long, lawless and regularly used by smugglers and rebel groups. Commentators have made the point that any incident could potentially escalate quickly.

It remains doubtful, however, whether the populations at large have any stomach for the fight; far more likely the people of Colombia and Venezuela will as usual moan about their leaders and keep on with the business of life in the sun.