The Aftermath

As widely predicted, tensions between the nations of Colombia, Ecuador and Venezuela have calmed after a week of turmoil.

In the end the matter was resolved at a regional summit with Brazil playing a major role in calming tensions between its northern neighbours. Shaking hands with Colombian President Alvaro Uribe, Ecuador's Rafael Correa stated, "With the commitment of never attacking a brother country again and by asking forgiveness, we can consider this very serious incident resolved."

The outcome is positive in more ways than one: as well as defusing a potentially disastrous regional conflict, it shows the increasing solidarity and efficacy of a unified league of South American nations.

Colombia in particular can move forward with optimism after the latest events. The government appears to have succeeded in their aim of further weakening rebel group FARC and of placing on the agenda the contentious issue of cross-border rebel activity.

A risky gamble indeed to have gone into Ecuador's territory, but one which seems to have paid off particularly given the latest blow delivered to the FARC.

Just as the nations gathered at the peacemaking summit news emerged that another notorious rebel leader, Ivan Rios, had been killed at the hands of one of his former commanders. Pedro Pablo Montoya murdered his boss, a member of the rebel Secretariat, ostensibly to gain a $2.5 million bounty offered by the Colombian government.

Debate is currently underway in the country as to whether such a cold-blooded character should benefit from such a large and official reward. Critics would say it sends out a message that terror may be beaten with terror; more realistic observers would point out that in Colombia more than most places, the means justify the ends.

Colombia and a short history of the pre-emptive strike

In the wake of the strike launched against the FARC, both Ecuador and Venezuela have reacted indignantly and threatened Colombia with legal action and military retaliation.

The incident itself consisted of an aerial and groundforce action just inside Ecuadorian territory which resulted in the death of Raul Reyes, one of the most powerful and oldest commanders of the rebel organisation. But while Ecuador cries foul and claims its sovereignty has been violated, the demise of Reyes represents a huge blow to the guerrilla group which for over 40 years has terrorized Colombians.

Ecuador can claim with justification that its rights have been infringed in this instance and the matter looks set to go before the OAS, the Organisation of American States and possibly the United Nations. Colombia, armed with good intelligence it seems and in the midst of an internal conflict, employed a tactic which we have seen throughout the history of nations: the pre-emptive strike.

Perceiving themselves threatened, states have long used the method to stun and disable their opponents in order to head off danger. And as history shows us, law-abiding best intentions and the stark choice of survival rarely make the best of friends in times of crisis.

What better example than that of Pearl Harbor? Choked of supplies and raw resources by the Americans on one side and threatened with a belligerent Russia on the other, the decision was made in 1941 that Japan would seize the vital oilfields of south-east Asia. It was thought at the time that only the American fleet could pose a significant threat to Japanese intentions, so a brilliant strike was conceived: to knock out the US naval aircraft carriers while at anchor in a single surprise blow. Thus could the Japanese disable a dangerous opponent without the risk of costly full frontal war. As we know the strike itself, while daring, ultimately failed in its objective of neutralising enough enemy aircraft carrier capacity. In America, the only emotions greater than moral indignance were the sense of profound shock at the nature of the attack and massive relief that all had not been lost.

In May 1967, Egypt massed troops and tanks on its Sinai border in response to rising tensions between its enemy, Israel, and the surrounding Arab states. With Syria, Jordan and Egypt building up their forces north, east and south, Israel found itself almost totally surrounded and facing the prospect of military annihilation as the world looked on. What followed has become legendary in military history: a devastating surprise attack which left all three Arab armies shattered, shocked and in total disarray. The Israeli airforce crippled its Egyptian counterpart in an overwhelming surprise strike and the army swiftly followed up by seizing the Sinai peninsular in the south and Golan Heights from Syria in the north. Jordanian forces were forced quickly from the West Bank and East Jerusalem, leaving the borders of Israel largely as they are today. Israel, seen as something of a pariah by many, is regularly criticised by countries in more peaceable regions for its aggression and readiness to strike. But Israel sees itself as living constantly on the brink and remembers all too well what it means to have destruction brought upon its people.

Controversy still rages over the Royal Navy's sinking of the ARA General Belgrano during the Falklands war of 1982. In early May the British nuclear powered hunter-killer submarine HMS Conqueror detected the warship close to the Burdwood Bank, south of the islands. Although outside the declared exclusion zone of 200 miles by radius from the centre of the Falklands, Prime Minister Thatcher consulted with her staff and decided the warship and its group presented a clear threat. On May 2 two torpedoes hit and sank the ship resulting in the deaths of 323 men. Despite the fact that the threat to the fledgling and precarious task force was effectively eliminated, the case quickly became a cause-celebre for anti-war activists. To this day criticism is directed at the warlike British leadership of the time.

Colombia v. Venezuela: The Background

Most commentators agree that hostilities between Colombia and Venezuela or Colombia and Ecuador are unlikely at present.

Hugo Chavez has a long history of blustering about the graces of socialist principles and of threatening military action against any likely aggressors, be they from arch enemy the United States, or as in this instance their ally, Colombia.

But in the wake of the killing of FARC number two Raul Reyes, Chavez has ordered tank batallions to the border, ostensibly outraged at Colombia's incursion into Ecuador territory to carry out the fatal raid on rebel camps.

Chavez himself has been accused of harbouring FARC rebels in the past, and his latest move has been seen in some circles as an admission of guilt.

While Ecuador have now reopened the possibility of appointing another Colombian embassador to Quito, having ejected the first, the Venezuela line remains hard, leading Colombian newspaper El Pais to label the local crisis "the worse in recent times."

Colombian political parties have moved their support firmly behind their president for now, asking that he be respected by President Chavez.

During his tenure in office President Alvaro Uribe, criticised in some quarters for his hardline policies, has achieved great successes in winning back large tracts of land from guerrilla control. In a country plagued for decades by the threat of kidnap and extortion, vehicle jacking and sabotage, Mr Uribe has managed to reopen major routes to vital movement of trade and people with uncompromising use of his army.

War between Colombia and Venezuela is unthinkable given their closely matched military capabilites on land, sea and air and yet the contentious border zone where any face-off is likely to take place is long, lawless and regularly used by smugglers and rebel groups. Commentators have made the point that any incident could potentially escalate quickly.

It remains doubtful, however, whether the populations at large have any stomach for the fight; far more likely the people of Colombia and Venezuela will as usual moan about their leaders and keep on with the business of life in the sun.

From Joy to Crisis

For Colombia, it’s joy to crisis in the space of a week.

After the release of two high profile FARC hostages in January, four more were released to scenes of joyous reunion on Wednesday. As with the release of Clara Rojas and Consuelo González, Venezuelan President Hugo Chavez once again combined forces with Colombian Senator Piedad Cordoba in working for the freedom of the latest four after their enforced captivity in the jungle. Gloria Polanco, Luis Eladio Perez, Orlando Beltran and Jorge Eduardo Gechem, all former Colombian legislators, were reunited with their families in the Simon Bolivar International airport near Caracas on February 27.

Colombian president Alvaro Uribe, who has had a tense relationship with Chavez in the past, thanked the Venezuelan premier for his mediation efforts and called for the FARC to release all of those held in captivity. The newly released hostages soon spoke of the poor health of Ingrid Betancourt, previous Colombian presidential candidate and the highest profile captive currently in the hands of the left wing rebel group. Miss Betancourt, who possesses dual French-Colombian nationality, is said to be in a fragile state of health, suffering advanced Hepatitis B as a result of inhumane treatment delivered at the hands of her captors. French president Nicholas Sarkozy added to the calls for her immediate release, stating he will come to Colombia to pick her up himself.

Scarcely days after the released captives were able to return to their families, news broke of the surprise attack and subsequent death of FARC number two Raul Reyes, killed in his jungle camp close to the Colombian border in Ecuador. One of the longest standing and most influential leaders of the insurgency, real name Luis Edgar Devia Silva, Reyes was killed in a predawn airstrike launched on his camp by the Colombian airforce. Shortly after the strike, Colombian soldiers were sent the approximate two kilometers over the border to secure the camp and recover the bodies.

The demise of Raul Reyes, the FARC’s chief spokesman, was seen as a major coup for hardline president Alvaro Uribe but triggered strong criticism and protest from Ecuador, who prepared a note of formal protest. Venezuela’s Hugo Chavez reacted to news of the Colombian incursion with an angry response of his own:

"President [Alvaro] Uribe, think about it long and hard. You had better not get the idea of doing this on our territory because it would be a 'causus belli', cause for a war."

The latest news from Venezuela confirms that Hugo Chavez has ordered thousands of troops and tanks to the border and the closure of the Venezuelan embassy in Bogota in preparation for what could potentially be a war in South America. Speaking on his weekly television slot, ‘Alo Presidente’, he called the slaying of Raul Reyes “a cowardly murder, all of it coldly calculated”, and has labelled the government in Bogota “a terrorist state” for its violation of Ecuador’s territorial sovereignty.

Despite recent steps forward with hostage releases, the relationship between Colombia and Venezuela remains fractious. Colombia’s Alvaro Uribe has achieved great success in securing large parts of the country from the threat of the left wing FARC and remains suspicious about the motives and involvement of professed Fidel Castro fan Hugo Chavez. Chavez for his part perceives Colombia as a staunch ally of what he sees as a dangerous American imperialist empire. Although the United States and European Union officially list the FARC as a terrorist group, President Chavez has refused to do so, instead calling them a legitimate insurgent force.